Date: 10th April
The World’s Turning Point, Next Door To India: Fragile Ceasefire To Test Destiny In Pakistan
The Fact: The ceasefire between the United States and Iran came under strain just hours after it was announced and a day ahead of the high-stakes US-Iran talks in Pakistan’s Islamabad. Before the US delegation led by Vice President JD Vance landed in Islamabad, Israel carried out the deadliest airstrikes of this war on Lebanon that killed nearly 200 people and injured thousands. In response, Iran once again restricted movement through the crucial Strait of Hormuz. It warned that any vessel that passes through the Strait without prior approval of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps could be targeted. However, Iran partially opened it later, allowing only 15 vessels to pass in a day.
The Context: According to Iran, the attacks carried out on Lebanon by Israel were a “grave violation” of the ceasefire. This prompted the Islamic Republic to once again restrict trade through the Strait of Hormuz. This move is likely to unsettle the US, given that nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through this narrow waterway, and keeping it open was among the key conditions of the ceasefire. Israel and the US, however, have reasoned that Lebanon was not covered under the agreement, hence the attacks do not violate any terms. Amid this already fragile situation, a fresh complexity emerged as US President Donald Trump warned that any country supplying arms to Iran would face a 50% tariff.
The Peek Insight: There was always skepticism around the ceasefire agreement. Many believed that a two-week halt would not hold for long. Israel has previously, too, violated ceasefire agreements by attacking Gaza, often justifying it by claiming it was targeting Hamas bases. Here, too, it seems like the same reasoning is being repeated. This attack also suggests that Israel may not have been entirely comfortable with the terms of the ceasefire. But since Iran has long supported regional proxies like Hezbollah, even if these strikes were aimed at such bases, they go directly against Iran’s interests. On the other hand, Trump reverting to tariff rhetoric once again highlights a deeper issue: just as Iran does not trust the US, the US too appears unwilling to trust Iran. Given the weak foundation of the ceasefire, it remains to be seen whether the Islamabad talks will end in a stalemate or a real breakthrough.
Terror State Talks Peace At High Table, ‘Vishwaguru’ Missing From The Room?
The Fact: Following the US-Iran ceasefire, Pakistan has projected itself as a key diplomatic ‘peacemaker’. Headlines in Islamabad claimed that it “saved a whole civilisation” by mediating a ceasefire hours before Trump’s deadline for attacking the Iranian civilisation. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and the country’s military leadership were seen as instrumental in bringing both countries to the negotiating table, and both the US and Iran have thanked Pakistan for its mediation in their respective statements. But in the midst of all this, India remains largely absent from all narratives surrounding the conflict.
The Context: India's ‘MIA’ stand in this context could be seen from multiple angles. First, we didn't try to mediate in the conflict. Second, the country that we consider our "enemy" actually went ahead and emerged as the peacemaker, receiving appreciation globally. This might also help Pakistan gain long-term strategic profits that may harm us in the future. At the same time, if reports are true, China was also an influential part of this negotiation - again, a country with which we continue to have strained relations.
The Peek Insight: Right now, Pakistan has effectively taken control of the narrative. There was widespread fear that this conflict could escalate into a World War. But by helping bring about a ceasefire - even though a fragile and disrupted one - Pakistan has, in a way, offered the world a sense of relief. At the same time, India’s absence is noticeable. Throughout this entire conflict, we didn't play any visible role. In fact, while Pakistan was preparing to mediate, India’s foreign minister called it a “dalal.” It could be possible that India’s decision to stay out was a calculated one. After all, we maintain relatively strong relations with all three key players: trade ties with the US, cultural ties with Iran, and military ties with Israel. But precisely because of that position, we could have leveraged it to emerge as a mediator ourselves. At the very least, we needed to remain visible during this period, especially if we aspire to be seen as a “Vishwaguru” and the “voice of the Global South”.
Voter Tsunami In State Polls: Turning Tide Or Incumbent Wave?
The Fact: Voting across Kerala, Assam, and Puducherry concluded on Thursday evening. The voter turnout across all three regions was strong, with Kerala recording an estimated 77.45% turnout, Assam 84.42%, while Puducherry registered a record 86% turnout. Polling remained largely smooth, though there were instances of violence in Assam where around 30 were left injured, and seven were arrested. In Puducherry as well, clashes flared up between BJP and Congress cadres.
The Context: Despite the usual hurdles that one expects on polling days, the voter turnout actually presents an impressive outcome. Kerala’s estimated voter turnout was slightly higher than its 2021 figure. Assam, too, surpassed its previous election figures. Puducherry, on the other hand, scored remarkably, with its voter turnout being the highest in the Union Territory’s history. In Kerala, the fight is now between the BJP-led NDA, Congress-led UDF, and the ruling LDF. In Assam and Puducherry, the NDA will be seeking to retain its consecutive term. These elections were part of a multi-state electoral cycle; next in line are Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, with their polls scheduled for later this month. Counting of votes will be conducted on May 4.
The Peek Insight: All three of these states have a very distinct political landscape. Kerala is one of the few states left in the country where the BJP has struggled to make a mark. This time too, the trend suggests that the NDA’s seat count will not go beyond a single digit, and the actual fight remains between the UDF and LDF. In Assam, the BJP is expected to retain power, with CM Himanta Biswa Sarma at the helm of the party. His policies, especially the ones targeting “illegal migrants,” and his speeches on “Miya Muslims,” have been controversial. Standing against him is Gaurav Gogoi from the Congress. The Assam Congress has recently witnessed significant internal rifts, with several members leaving the party at the last moment. In Puducherry, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Chief Minister N. Rangasamy’s AINRC, is expected to retain power amid a tight contest from the Congress-DMK alliance, according to local surveys.
Children Killed In Midnight Blast, Manipur Explodes In Rage Again
The Fact: Protest erupted in Manipur’s Imphal Valley for the second consecutive day after a fresh wave of violence in the state killed two children in their sleep. The death toll has now reached five people, including three protesters who were injured in police firing after a mob stormed a Central Reserve Police Force camp.
The Context: The protests started after two children were killed in a bomb attack in the Bishnupur district. A five-year-old boy and his six-month-old sister were killed in their sleep, and their mother was injured. Curfew and restrictions have been imposed across Imphal East, Imphal West, Thoubal, Kakching, and Bishnupur, and internet services have been suspended. Three people have been arrested so far in connection with the bomb attack. The attack took place near the Bishnupur-Churachandpur boundary, an area that has seen continuous tensions since the start of the violence in 2023.
The Peek Insight: The targeting of the CRPF camp right after the bomb attack shows a growing frustration among the valley residents, who have often accused the security forces of failing to prevent violence in the area. In this case, too, despite the proximity of the CRPF personnel, two innocent children lost their lives in the dead of the night. While Chief Minister Yumnam Khemchand Singh chaired a high-level security meeting to discuss strategies, this attack revealed the fragility of Manipur’s security. Just a few hundred kilometers away in Assam, the BJP is already celebrating its likely electoral victory, while in Manipur, grief has returned. While the state’s usual response of curfew, internet shutdown, and force deployment has already been announced, what is needed is a serious effort to address the root cause and the mistrust between security forces and those they seek to protect. A state that has been burning with violence since 2023, where more than 260 people have died in communal clashes, feels ignored, with not even a single visit from Prime Minister Modi since the unrest began.
Ruling That Gave Millions An Identity, ‘Not A Good Law’ For Modi Government?
The Fact: The Centre told the Supreme Court of India on Wednesday that the 2018 judgment decriminalising same-sex relationships under Section 377 should be considered “not a good law”. During hearings before a nine-judge Constitution bench led by Chief Justice Surya Kant in an unrelated case, Solicitor General Tushar Mehta argued that the ruling in Navtej Singh Johar v. Union of India relied on the subjective concept of “constitutional morality.”
The Context: This hearing took place while the Chief Justice of India was considering petitions related to discrimination faced by women at religious places, particularly the Sabarimala Temple in Kerala. The Centre argued that in a country governed by democratic principles, the majority view ultimately prevails. The same logic, it said, extends to lawmaking, since laws are enacted by the majority. To illustrate this point, Solicitor General Tushar Mehta cited the case of Navtej Singh Johar v. Union of India. He argued that the principles laid down in that judgment are not a valid standard for testing legislation.
The Peek Insight: The government has not sought to revive Section 377 directly, but it has questioned the legal reasoning that led to its partial striking down. The Centre’s view here challenges the foundation of the verdict, even though in Navtej Singh Johar vs The Union of India, the Supreme Court affirmed that Section 377 violated fundamental rights of many Indian citizens. Combined with this, the recent passage of the Transgender Amendment Bill, pushed through hastily without meaningful consultation with the community, is already making the LGBTQIA community suspicious of the government’s intentions towards it.
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