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Date: 5th May
East Breached, South Rewritten: Modi, Vijay Steal The Climax
The Fact
On May 4, the results of Assembly elections in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala, and Puducherry led to a major shift in India’s political landscape. The BJP registered a historic victory in West Bengal, ending the long rule of Mamata Banerjee, while also securing a third consecutive term in Assam. In Tamil Nadu, actor-turned-politician Vijay’s TVK delivered a stunning debut win, disrupting the traditional DMK–AIADMK dominance. Kerala, on the other hand, followed its familiar pattern of power rotation, with the Congress-led UDF defeating the ruling Left Front, a win that has officially ended the era of Left-wing parties’ rule. Meanwhile, the NDA retained power in Puducherry.
The Context
Bengal has been one of the mission states of the BJP for years. After coming to power in 2014, PM Modi had his eyes set firmly on the eastern state. The BJP’s rise in Bengal has been both gradual and dramatic. From half a dozen odd seats in the 294-strong assembly in 2016, 77 seats in 2021 to a complete landslide in 2026, the BJP’s Bengal sweep has been one of the biggest paradigm shifts in Indian politics in decades. Meanwhile, in Tamil Nadu, the Dravidian duopoly between the DMK and the AIADMK has been ended by a political debutant, that too after over half a century. Further, with the end of Pinarayi Vijayan’s decade-long rule, India will be without a left government for the first time in nearly 50 years.
Peek Insight
This election verdict significantly changes the political landscape of India. With its Bengal breakthrough, the BJP has successfully transformed from a heartland party to now a pan-India political juggernaut. Mamata Banerjee’s 15-year rule has been brought to an end by the BJP. This will come as a blow not only to the TMC but the opposition space. Two of the most formidable opposition Chief Ministers have fallen. The most unexpected outcome comes from Vijay’s TVK. By entering politics at a strategically opportune moment, Vijay achieved what many former celebrity-turned-politicians in southern India could not. He successfully mobilised young urban voters and capitalised on a split in the vote share between the AIADMK and the DMK.
Lights, Camera, CM?: Thalapathy Scripts A Blockbuster Ballot, Ends Dravidian Dominance
The Fact
What was initially considered a risky decision has now turned out to be a masterstroke for Vijay. On Monday, May 4, TVK won the Assembly elections by 107 seats. Vijay himself secured a decisive victory in the Perambur constituency, defeating R. D. Shekar of the DMK. Vijay’s victory caused a major blow to CM M. K. Stalin, who lost his Kolathur seat, a Karunanidhi stronghold, to V. S. Babu of the TVK. Overall, the DMK secured 74 seats, while the AIADMK, contesting in alliance with the BJP, managed to win only 53.
The Context
Tamil Nadu politics has long been rooted in the Dravidian ideology. It has historically been upheld by the DMK and the AIADMK. Against this backdrop, Vijay’s victory assumes significant political importance. His entry into the electoral fray appears to have split the vote share of both the DMK and the AIADMK. CM Stalin seemed to have anticipated this shift, which may explain his recent efforts to foreground a strong Tamil identity narrative. This was visible through opposition to the National Education Policy 2020’s three-language formula or his stance on the delimitation exercise. However, as noted by political analyst Dr. Kartikeya Batra during Peek TV's Verdict Day live discussion, public frustration in the state had reached a tipping point. And this might have prompted voters to place their trust in a new political face.
Peek Insight
Tamil Nadu has previously seen actors with some of the strongest fan bases, like Rajinikanth and Kamal Haasan, step into politics without achieving the desired electoral results. So what has Thalapathy Vijay done differently to achieve this ‘Vijay’ in the elections? The answer lies in his positioning. He avoided allying himself with existing political groups and instead chose the road less taken. He gave equal attention to both urban and rural issues. He built a strong target audience among the young voter and used social media to his advantage. Most of all his celebrity, or as many point out the ‘demigod’ status he enjoys, pushed him to achieve all this with ease. Vijay presented a fresh alternative to the state’s traditional Dravidian heavyweights. But despite all this, his win should be weighed cautiously. One should see if he can translate this electoral breakthrough into long-term political dominance.
Heartland To Hooghly: BJP Turns The Bengal Khela On Its Head, Didi Dethroned
The Fact
Mamata Banerjee's 15-year dominant rule came to an end on Monday as the BJP surged past the majority mark in West Bengal, winning 206 seats. TMC, on the other hand, could muster only 81. What was more significant was Banerjee's own loss. She lost her seat in Bhabanipur to BJP's State President Suvendu Adhikari, ironically, a former close aide to Banerjee. The Falta constituency result is pending and goes to repoll on May 21 due to EVM tampering.
The Context
As shocking as it may look, Banerjee’s loss was long anticipated. Back in 2021, TMC won 215 seats while the BJP could manage only 77. By 2024, the BJP improved itself by securing 18 of 42 Parliament seats from Bengal. What may have actually helped the party to achieve an overall victory this time is anti-incumbency. There seemed to be a growing public frustration over the TMC’s alleged “goon culture,” an issue the BJP effectively capitalised on during its campaign. The BJP also sharpened its attack by accusing the TMC of “minority appeasement.” But the final nail in the coffin was the RG Kar Medical College rape and murder case. The BJP sought to channel the charged sentiment politically by fielding the victim’s mother as a candidate from Panihati, where she went on to register a notable victory. At the same time, what can also not be ignored is the state-wide SIR exercise conducted just months before the election. More than 90 lakh voters were deleted, many with vague reasons like "logical discrepancies.” The TMC alleged that most of these were genuine names, as well as the TMC’s voter base.
Peek Insight
It was 2011 when West Bengal voted out the Left after 34 uninterrupted years in power. This was a political shift many believed would not be repeated anytime soon. But yesterday, that assumption collapsed. What makes this shift striking is not just the defeat of the TMC, but the manner of it. A party that built its identity by positioning itself as the loudest voice against “outsiders” has been outmanoeuvred by that very force, helping the BJP secure its first victory in the state since independence. West Bengal, which was long seen as a resistant frontier, has now been breached. One thing, however, remains common to both 2011 and 2026 - both times the state voted for poriborton. How this mandate for change ultimately unfolds is something only time will reveal.
Red Sunset: For The First Time In 50 Years, No Left On The Map
The Fact
The Congress-led UDF surged past the halfway mark in the 140-member Assembly, winning 102 seats. The left front, LDF lagged on 35, officially ending the era of Left-wing politics in Kerala. CM Pinarayi Vijayan, who was aiming for a rare third consecutive term, performed well on his part by winning his seat at Dharmadam. Despite this, his party's performance remained underwhelming. The CPI(M) managed to secure just 26 seats, while the Congress emerged as the single largest party with 63. Interestingly, the BJP made a modest but significant breakthrough by winning 3 seats, delivering one of its strongest-ever performances in the state.
The Context
Kerala has long oscillated between the Left and the UDF. That rhythm was briefly disrupted in 2021, when Vijayan secured a rare consecutive term with a commanding mandate. This time, however, his attempt to repeat that failed. This, however, does not necessarily reflect a rejection of the government’s welfare record. Kerala continues to rank among the better-performing states on several development indicators. But a decade in power appeared to have shifted voters’ expectations. Questions around employment, private investment, and opportunities for those entering the workforce were coming to the surface. At the same time, the CPI(M) tried to engage with religious politics, softening its stance on the Sabrimala issue ahead of the elections. Then there were also allegations of corruption involving individuals close to the administration. All this gave the opposition a clearer line of attack.
Peek Insight
In Kerala, this verdict seems to be a reset. The Left’s attempt to recalibrate through softer positioning on sensitive religious issues or by leaning on its governance record could not convince the voters. The UDF, by contrast, did not necessarily win on a sweeping alternative vision, rather it occupied the spaces the 'left' open. Another important telling signal is the BJP's gain. It hints at an underlying churn in a state long resistant to its politics. In that sense, Kerala’s verdict is instructive. It shows that even in India’s most politically stable state, continuity has a shelf life.
Himanta’s High Citadel: Fortress Firm, Mandate Multiplied
The Fact
In Assam, the results confirmed a decisive victory for the BJP, which won 102 seats and limited the Congress to just 21. This is the Saffron party’s historic hattrick in the state. CM Himanta Biswa Sarma registered a resounding victory in Jalukbari, defeating Congress candidate Bidisha Neog by over 80,000 votes. Meanwhile, Gaurav Gogoi, Congress's CM face, lost his seat in Jorhat.
The Context
Assam has been the one Northeast state the BJP has held comfortably since 2016. Himanta Biswa Sarma, who switched from Congress to BJP in 2015, became chief minister in 2021 and ran a centralised, high-visibility administration. He made himself the face of the election, and the opposition tried to consolidate. Even then, the scale of the win marks a significant improvement for the BJP. Back in 2021, the BJP had secured 60 seats and depended on its NDA allies to form the government. In November 2025, eight parties, including Congress, formed the Asom Sonmilito Morcha alliance against the BJP, which did not make a dent. NDA crossed 50% of the popular vote, which in Indian elections is a rare, decisive number.
Peek Insight
His campaign around ‘illegal migration’ appears to have resonated strongly with voters. This is visible from the fact that his divisive rhetoric, particularly his references to “Miya” Muslims and other minority groups, could not dent his electoral appeal. For the Congress, this outcome raises difficult questions. Its emphasis on inclusive politics and accommodation did not translate into electoral gains. In fact, its performance slipped further compared to the previous election. The result suggests that, in Assam’s current political climate, this approach may not have been sufficient to counter the BJP’s sharply defined narrative.
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